Ah, Spring

Or what passes for it at 6,000 ft in the northern Rockies:

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

A theory I've seen exemplified in the past year. 

An Example of the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Unlike yourself, I'm a great writer

Most people are required to write stuff for some reason or other. This is one area where the Dunning-Kruger Effect is prevalent. If you don't know you can't use an apostrophe to show a plural (e.g., two solution's) or you don't know that semicolons can't be used for introductions (e.g., I like the following; A, B and C), then these mistakes don't register as mistakes when you bash out your written correspondence. To the rest of the world, you look a bit of a dunce, but, as far as you're concerned, you're a great writer. Your incompetence has stopped you seeing your incompetence. The Dunning-Kruger Effect is the reverse side of the coin to this football chant: 

"You're shit, and you know you are." (Football chant) 

With the Dunning-Kruger Effect, they don't know they are. 

According to Dunning and Kruger, ignorance is behind a great deal of incompetence. They assert that incompetent people will:

• Overestimate their abilities.
• Fail to recognise genuine ability in others.
• Not recognise the extremity of their inadequacy.

Oh, if you didn't spot that the "Unlike Yourself" in the title of this example should be "Unlike You", you could be one of those unwittingly whacking loads of grammar errors into your work without realising it. Eeek! Solution? Use competent proofreaders

Another example:

n the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people of low ability have illusory superiority and mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority comes from the inability of low-ability people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, low-ability people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence

This ringing a bell with anyone

Breakfast in Saigon

I have a friend, the cook down the street for those that have followed me for some years, who's spending a couple months in Vietnam. He's sent emails showing mostly the food, very inexpensive food, that's he's having daily. This is breakfast, a block from his hotel in Saigon, price was around 2$ american.

The only drawback he says is the coke for breakfast..

As a contrast, here's what the street where this cafe looked like when I was there, 1968

My house this morning

Happily, I'm not there until Friday

Butte this morning.....15 inches new over a 2+ foot base. Another foot expected between now and Friday. Oh, and it's 1 degree above, so it's not too cold.

President's day, a few hours late

Not sure how much longer I'll blog, kind of depends on lots of factors. So dunno. Anyway, thought I'd do a succession, a contrast, something about presidents.

First, FDR

The creationist of the New Deal, the idea of social equality, of rights of workers, and put through more legislation in the first 3 months of his presidency than any before or after. Also went overboard, in an understanding way to a liberal like me. Stacking the Supreme Court, overreach in others, rightly understood that the population of the US did not understand history or politics enough to know we had to give aid to Great Britain, whether or not they could repay.

Second, President Ronald Reagan. 

An actor, Governor of California, and a more likable person you'd ever want to meet. Until you met him. Did his best to reverse everything FDR had done in terms of social legislation, articulated conservative values in terms that people identified with, and was quite popular. Also, was probably affected by dementia for most of his last term in office. And arguably could deliver a speech like none other. 

And, for me, one of the most complex and puzzling. Barack Obama. 

Do you remember that November of 2008? The joy we felt? For me, at a rather advanced age, it was reminiscent of when JFK was elected in 1960: a new beginning, a huge jump forward, the possibility our dreams could really happen. A articulate, poised, intelligent President. Coming on the heels of W, this was not a high bar, but Barack leaped it with feet to spare. Oh...and he was a black man. America had finally done it, broke that ceiling. Race, maybe, we thought, or at least some of us, was on the right track to understanding and someday a real togetherness. We were so naive. 

Then, we found that he did not do exactly want what we, dreamers, leftists etc, wanted. He was a moderate democrat. He made decisions about the military, security, I did not agree with. But his charm, his intelligence, won me over, time after time. He was an honest, introspective man. 

Now we have......well you know what we have. One of my failures, as I look back 73 years, is a failure to recognize the differences between appearances and reality. I was out of touch with those  values unlike mine, and I thought we were a voice of america. 

I do not know what the future will hold. 

What do you think?  

Tom Cochrun's comment below is a much better analysis then mine above. It shows that he is the award-winning journalist, and I would be better off interpreting pulmonary and cardiac tests.

Winter, during my absence, has settled upon Butte, as it should well have. My neighbor reports I have around 3' of snow in the yard, up to the top of the fence, as it should be. Night before last the low was -27, That's without wind chill. Chicago mad the national news with -20, in Butte it just make the weather page. However....The Berkeley Pit froze over, good for the errant bird that want's to land on the water. It has a Ph of 1.8, so kind of acidic. Nonetheless, it froze over.

In the summer smoke from forest fires

After a couple days of below zero